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What are the chances that obamacare will be repealed?

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What are the chances that obamacare will be repealed?

Postby ned » Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:01 am

I was just breaking down numbers for a class project(Applied statistical theory) . My final numbers suggest that it's unlikely that Obamacare will be repealed. Here's why:

If Obama wins the presidency, you can say goodbye to the repeal because by then most of the plan will be in place and no party in their right mind will repeal it after Obama leaves. There will be huge repercussions if the law is repealed. It would increase the deficit along with a shellshock that the health care industry will go through, which will leave the American health care system handicapped...this along with other nasty consequences and a public backlash which can only be theorized by analyzing historical consequences of similar actions in the US and other countries.

If Romney wins, then it's a possibility, but the GOP would need to regain the House(which will probably happen if you analyze the poll numbers county by county) and the senate. The GOP only needs seven more seats to regain the majority in the senate. I predict the GOP will win the House, but the senate is up for grabs. Even if the GOP wins across the board(the white house, and a congress majority in both the house and the senate), it will still take two or so years for them to repeal it. A democratic response to this needs to be taking into account as well.

I was pretty conservative with my numbers, however my classmates did not follow the path I did. As one of my classmates put it in a humorous fashion- "The chances of obamacare being repealed are a little better than the chances of a snowball remaining intact in hell."
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What are the chances that obamacare will be repealed?

Postby toryn34 » Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:02 am

Your classmate hit the nail on the head.
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What are the chances that obamacare will be repealed?

Postby torran » Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:10 am

I'd say anywhere from 0.00%-0.01%
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What are the chances that obamacare will be repealed?

Postby dacy17 » Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:13 am

Very slim.

The House will turn Democrat. The Senate will turn Republican and Obama will win again. That is my guess.
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What are the chances that obamacare will be repealed?

Postby eoforwic » Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:23 am

Very slim.

The House will turn Democrat. The Senate will turn Republican and Obama will win again. That is my guess.
almost none.

The GOP has the house, so they can pass a House bill to do it. In the Senate, even after the election, they'd have to win 7 additional seats to gain a filibuster-proof majority. Then of course, Romney has to be elected so he can sign the law.

The Senate is the problem. The GOP may pick up seats, but very very unlikely to pick up another 7.

Lastly, if we don't get it done after this next election, it's too late. By Nov. 2014, when the GOP could finally win enough seats in the Senate, ObamaCare will already be fully implemented and just impossible to dismantle.
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What are the chances that obamacare will be repealed?

Postby bothan » Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:32 am

May not happen but the mandate can be killed with a simple majority vote now that the Supreme Court has called it a tax.
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What are the chances that obamacare will be repealed?

Postby freedom97 » Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:36 am

Unlikely, the only way is that republicans take congress or it fails and to stop it from causing more damage (which is also unlikely)
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What are the chances that obamacare will be repealed?

Postby fitche » Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:38 am

Now that the Supremes have weighed in on it I would say the likelihood of repeal is slim to none.
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What are the chances that obamacare will be repealed?

Postby gabrielo19 » Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:45 am

Not likely at all, but for political reasons.

First, Republicans would have to explain to the millions of people who have already benefited from the law, why they're taking that away. Then, Republicans would have to explain why going back to the status quo before the ACA (out of control increases, no reason for dropping coverage, no coverage at all for preexisting conditions, etc...) is better than having protection against those things. Then, Republicans would have to start from scratch on a bill that, as they tell us, would contain some of those very same provisions that they took away in the first place.

Repealing the ACA is a no-win situation for Republicans. They would be better off compromising with Democrats to pass changes to the law to address their concerns, which is what they should have done back in the beginning; instead of obstructing everything.
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